I’ve been following the real estate market since the mid 80’s. One thing for sure is that there are trends to follow and trends to look out for. Let me explain….In the early to mid 80’s, prices of homes were flat and the number of new loans and refinances were stable. In the Late 80’s, we saw a price increase of homes that went on for about 4 years. People were buying and selling homes like crazy. People were rolling their equity into vacation homes, investment properties, vacations, cars and boats. The loan industry was booming. They were making a fortune!

Then came 1991 and the tides began to turn. Then came 1992 through 1996 and we say a four year down turn in the market and everyone who was in real estate and mortgage industries got out of the business. So then came the industry saving grace, 1997 and things were getting back to the hayday and people had a chance to make fortunes again. I remember when homes prices were increasing by 20k in 30 to 60 days and we all said…there went the bottom of the market. Prices were going up and up and interest rates were going down and down. This uptrend lasted for about 8 years through 2005. The government has a lot to do with the extended hayday as the Fed kept lowing interest rates. I call this an artificial bubble of over inflated home prices.

Now that the cool down period is here, I have a feeling that it will crash hard or we will see a steady decline for the next 5 years. Due to the over inflated prices set by the government lowing interest rates to 40 year lows, the only direction to go after a huge upswing and a terrible downswing that is going to last for several years. In New York, where I live, we are already seeing a number of record foreclosures and the downswing is just beginning. Just on my street of 12 homes, there are two homes in foreclosure. One just sold for a record low price and the other is on the market as it was just taken back by the bank.

Do you know what happens to other industries when the real estate and mortgage industries crash? Usually other businesses slow down too. This creates a problem for the mortgage broker starting all over again. He or she will be starting all over again in a declining market where there is no chance of making any kind of fortune. Would you like to find out what industries are thriving in this down market? If so, I will share a secret with you.